For example, why usually impose sanctions (action)? To punish the enemy, force him to make concessions (motive). As a ban on the import of products will punish the United States or the EU? Yes way: there are no large companies in the United States or the European Union, which supply in Russia more than 2-3% of their exports. Redirected, and if it does not - lose 2-3% of sales (with seasonal variations in prices of 20%, year to year - up to 25%, the annual change in sales - 10-15%). Notice? Hardly. Only logistics will be easier (the actual outcome). And who will notice? Notice (this is a side effect) distributors (Russian) - will lose more than half of its business; notice retailers - fall volume, there is nothing to replace it immediately; notice citizens - no matter how bad the Australian meat, but those who buy it, do not buy domestic. Australian will not - that will make these finicky buyers? That's right - buy domestic, where to go. Demand for domestic meat will increase by 20-35%, and do not think that the province where the Australian meat and was not, will not suffer: Moscow and St. Petersburg will come and drag over the delivery itself. And where does it lead? To increase the price of domestic meat; Judging by the elasticity of the market by 50-70 percent (this is the main by-product). It turned out that the sanctions do not work against the enemy, but work against the current Russian market! I can not suffer in the fight against the enemy, but if the enemy neither cold nor hot ...
I'll tell you more. These evil USA and the EU will not lose their 2-3% of sales. They blocked through Kazakhstan or Belarus, or third countries with plywood back tags will sell to us. And we - buy, once we have a shortage of products (temporary, as you say, permanent, as I say). But transportation, plywood, smuggling costs money. So will we have the same products, but more expensive. So they - have sold the same amount, we - bought the same, but more expensive. This is a success.
And maybe sanctions - this in order to protect our market? Help Russian manufacturer? The idea is interesting. Only then why ban the importation of products that we do not produce and do not we? Someone help? Or our government does not know what we have olive oil does not grow?
Well, a little heated with oil, but it apples, meat, etc. we grow. Defend? Let's try. To begin with - why Russia is so well buy imported food? There are two possibilities: either the imported products are better and cheaper, or - in our land food in sufficient quantities do not grow. Agree, if it were not so, then the consumer would prefer domestic and over 15 years of rampant oil prices, fertile stability and nutrient money rain from the depths of the Russian Agricultural Bank of domestic products alone would be (at some of our open spaces) so much that he would import decayed and died. And imports is growing every year.
So, we have two versions of "protection". Version One: import better and cheaper, he scores the national road and bad foods. It is necessary to prohibit the import and help domestic producers. And tell me, why would this producer, who could not do better than yesterday and less expensive, in the absence of competition suddenly improve the quality and lower the price? More than he can, and still produce, but - worse and more expensive, the competition is not present, and he could not at the competition! So be prepared for a general deterioration in the quality and an increase in food prices! You think it's all about? No, that's not all.
Suppose domestic producer accepted the challenge and began to put the money to do much more food (and less expensive, but still). And tell me, sanctions - it forever? And when we win the West, and he was throwing cookies, yellow-blue swastika and rainbow flags with six-pointed stars, run away, tail between his legs - you'll cancel the sanctions? Now imagine: domestic producer had built new facilities to produce even more expensive and worse (better and cheaper than he could before, but he did not), and you - the sanctions lifted! And the market again went over the good and cheap products with the defeated West! Tell me where you will find an idiot-producer, which at such a prospect to invest in new capacity even though the ruble? Only perhaps - state. Then to his EBV in its portfolio bought bankrupt on money borrowed in the West (sanctions had already canceled), or, more simply, - taken from the pension savings.
It did not happen with the first version. Then assume that the products from the West worse and more expensive, but our enchanted manufacturer simply not able to provide us sustenance, do anything. (This version, by the way, is close to reality, it is certainly not the manufacturer, and in the business environment created by our government, corruption, the cost of credit, the lack of infrastructure, etc..). But if you can not - what are we protecting? He still can not. Or prohibiting the import price of money will decrease, increase infrastructure, but officials stop taking bribes? It turns out, we just give the manufacturer the opportunity to raise prices by reducing supply in the market?
By the way, many people have the illusion that the small volume of domestic production of food - the result of a conspiracy distributors who simply do not allow domestic producers to turn. This, of course, misleading. Distributors, in general, it is still imported product or local. They happily sold to domestic setting barrier imports only if domestic bring higher margins (ie, it would be cheaper and / or better sold). If they do not, it means that domestic worse or more expensive. Of course, banning the import of cars (not the food, but clearly), we will increase the sale of "Lada". But the "Lada" will not be better - on the contrary, they rise and become worse. It will be bad for Russia, anyway. And the West - the West survive without Russian market.
So, it seems that as a result of the sanctions the West is not much affected, prices will rise, the quality - will fall, and domestic production will not increase. Then why all this?
I think that such a ban was invented especially for us. Have you ever seen fighting crickets in China? (Not for nothing, it is not in vain because we loved China.) So, fighting crickets before the fight host whet hurt jabbing them straw to cause aggression; and if cricket is tired and does not want to fight - throws it up to the fan under the roof, so he got scared and ran to the enemy. Our government apparently decided that the sanctions-light that enters the West against Russia, do not cause a Russian's enough anger and desire to fight. Samozapret on imports of food, non-virgin olive oil, Mediterranean fish, higher prices and the lack of meat and poultry should be for the people of Russia to play the role of straw, exciting aggression and patriotism. And judging by the reaction, it turns out.
The question remains: what to do with those who have even a straw is not ready to go into a fight? Which fan is invented and how our government is going to throw us out there? there?
I'll tell you more. These evil USA and the EU will not lose their 2-3% of sales. They blocked through Kazakhstan or Belarus, or third countries with plywood back tags will sell to us. And we - buy, once we have a shortage of products (temporary, as you say, permanent, as I say). But transportation, plywood, smuggling costs money. So will we have the same products, but more expensive. So they - have sold the same amount, we - bought the same, but more expensive. This is a success.
And maybe sanctions - this in order to protect our market? Help Russian manufacturer? The idea is interesting. Only then why ban the importation of products that we do not produce and do not we? Someone help? Or our government does not know what we have olive oil does not grow?
Well, a little heated with oil, but it apples, meat, etc. we grow. Defend? Let's try. To begin with - why Russia is so well buy imported food? There are two possibilities: either the imported products are better and cheaper, or - in our land food in sufficient quantities do not grow. Agree, if it were not so, then the consumer would prefer domestic and over 15 years of rampant oil prices, fertile stability and nutrient money rain from the depths of the Russian Agricultural Bank of domestic products alone would be (at some of our open spaces) so much that he would import decayed and died. And imports is growing every year.
So, we have two versions of "protection". Version One: import better and cheaper, he scores the national road and bad foods. It is necessary to prohibit the import and help domestic producers. And tell me, why would this producer, who could not do better than yesterday and less expensive, in the absence of competition suddenly improve the quality and lower the price? More than he can, and still produce, but - worse and more expensive, the competition is not present, and he could not at the competition! So be prepared for a general deterioration in the quality and an increase in food prices! You think it's all about? No, that's not all.
Suppose domestic producer accepted the challenge and began to put the money to do much more food (and less expensive, but still). And tell me, sanctions - it forever? And when we win the West, and he was throwing cookies, yellow-blue swastika and rainbow flags with six-pointed stars, run away, tail between his legs - you'll cancel the sanctions? Now imagine: domestic producer had built new facilities to produce even more expensive and worse (better and cheaper than he could before, but he did not), and you - the sanctions lifted! And the market again went over the good and cheap products with the defeated West! Tell me where you will find an idiot-producer, which at such a prospect to invest in new capacity even though the ruble? Only perhaps - state. Then to his EBV in its portfolio bought bankrupt on money borrowed in the West (sanctions had already canceled), or, more simply, - taken from the pension savings.
It did not happen with the first version. Then assume that the products from the West worse and more expensive, but our enchanted manufacturer simply not able to provide us sustenance, do anything. (This version, by the way, is close to reality, it is certainly not the manufacturer, and in the business environment created by our government, corruption, the cost of credit, the lack of infrastructure, etc..). But if you can not - what are we protecting? He still can not. Or prohibiting the import price of money will decrease, increase infrastructure, but officials stop taking bribes? It turns out, we just give the manufacturer the opportunity to raise prices by reducing supply in the market?
By the way, many people have the illusion that the small volume of domestic production of food - the result of a conspiracy distributors who simply do not allow domestic producers to turn. This, of course, misleading. Distributors, in general, it is still imported product or local. They happily sold to domestic setting barrier imports only if domestic bring higher margins (ie, it would be cheaper and / or better sold). If they do not, it means that domestic worse or more expensive. Of course, banning the import of cars (not the food, but clearly), we will increase the sale of "Lada". But the "Lada" will not be better - on the contrary, they rise and become worse. It will be bad for Russia, anyway. And the West - the West survive without Russian market.
So, it seems that as a result of the sanctions the West is not much affected, prices will rise, the quality - will fall, and domestic production will not increase. Then why all this?
I think that such a ban was invented especially for us. Have you ever seen fighting crickets in China? (Not for nothing, it is not in vain because we loved China.) So, fighting crickets before the fight host whet hurt jabbing them straw to cause aggression; and if cricket is tired and does not want to fight - throws it up to the fan under the roof, so he got scared and ran to the enemy. Our government apparently decided that the sanctions-light that enters the West against Russia, do not cause a Russian's enough anger and desire to fight. Samozapret on imports of food, non-virgin olive oil, Mediterranean fish, higher prices and the lack of meat and poultry should be for the people of Russia to play the role of straw, exciting aggression and patriotism. And judging by the reaction, it turns out.
The question remains: what to do with those who have even a straw is not ready to go into a fight? Which fan is invented and how our government is going to throw us out there? there?
No comments:
Post a Comment